Trump Holds Commanding Lead in Iowa Poll

A new poll of likely Republican caucusgoers in Iowa shows that former President Donald Trump has a commanding lead over his closest rivals, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott.

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Former President Donald Trump tosses a hat in the air while supporters cheer at the 2023 Iowa State Fair on Saturday August 12, 2023.  (Demetrius Freeman/The Washington Post via Getty Images)

The poll, conducted by the Des Moines Register and NBC News/Mediacom, found that Trump is the first choice of 42% of likely caucusgoers, while DeSantis is the second choice of 19% and Scott is the third choice of 9%. No other candidate scored double-digit support.

The poll also found that Trump has a strong advantage among evangelical voters, white working-class voters, and rural voters. DeSantis is more popular among college-educated voters and suburban voters.

The Iowa caucuses are the first nominating contest of the 2024 Republican presidential primary, and they are expected to be a major test for Trump's chances of winning the nomination. The poll results suggest that Trump is still the frontrunner, but he will face stiff competition from DeSantis and other potential candidates.

The indictment of former Trump advisor Steve Bannon could hurt Trump's support among some voters, but it is also possible that it could energize his base of support.

The Iowa caucuses are still five months away, so the race is still very fluid. It is too early to say who will win the nomination, but Trump is certainly the frontrunner at this point.

Here are some additional details from the poll:

• 65% of likely caucusgoers have a favorable view of Trump, while 33% have an unfavorable view.
• 66% of likely caucusgoers have a favorable view of DeSantis, while 29% have an unfavorable view.
• 59% of likely caucusgoers have a favorable view of Scott, while 17% have an unfavorable view.
• 52% of likely caucusgoers said they have a first choice for president and could still be convinced to support a different GOP contender.

The poll was conducted from August 13-17, and it has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.